The insidious face of a pandemic of variants

The insidious face of a pandemic of variants

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00:01
hello everyone i recently stated that i would no longer post additional videos and that my interpretation of the current situation was that there is little response or little appetite of health authorities to listen to our warnings and that we would have no choice but to wait and see how the situation is evolving
00:32
but now that there is seemingly a decision taken in a strong recommendation to also enroll youngsters in the kovic 19 mass vaccination campaign and even children i have changed my mind and i feel like it is an obligation to continue and still do this very last video because
01:05
this is this is simply unacceptable uh and it is just going to make the situation much worse but where does this idea to now also enroll children and youngsters in the mass vaccination campaign come from well there is actually today a lot of good news with regard to the results of this mass vaccination campaigns and i will come back to this later on
01:38
but basically the only thing that is still a little bit annoying or what seems annoying to held authorities and officials is that now we see a relatively increase in younger people getting coffee 19 disease and therefore they think that the best solution to solve this problem is simply to vaccinate them as well so
02:10
then why would a guy like me in light of all these good news oppose mass vaccination because i'm not even pointing to all the secondary effects or the long-term effects that these vaccines may cause this is something a number of other experts are deeply involved in and working on i'm simply pointing to the epidemiological consequences of this
02:42
mass vaccination and again i keep repeating that for me this is in terms of vaccine science a blunder of that is completely unprecedented and i can of course understand that this situation is very confusing to people on one hand side hearing all these good news in the media
03:13
and as i was saying i will come back to this about the success of this mass vaccination campaigns and on the other hand hearing people like me and others say that this is in fact going to be if it doesn't stop this is going to be to cause a catastrophe and that is also the reason why i will undertake a very last and ultimate attempt to explain
03:42
in as simple words as i can what is currently going on and why is it why so many people don't see what's coming and i like to compare this with with an iceberg where we see today in the short term we see the tip of the iceberg which is very bright which is sun drenched right but
04:16
the dark bulk of the iceberg is underwater and you can only see this when you basically take a dive into the waters and so but let's first get back to to the good news that we are hearing and seeing today and and which i need to confirm which is for example the fact that we are seeing a decrease in many countries that are well advanced with their mass
04:48
vaccination campaigns we are seeing a decline in the morbidity and the mortality rates we see that there is less illness in people who got vaccinated and we also see that these people are even if they are infected with variants they are still capable of resisting severe disease and also
05:19
if they don't get a disease they will shed less virus even when infected with variants they will shed much less virus compared to somebody who would not be vaccinated and on top these zero positivity rates are increasing in the population thanks to vaccination and that also gives officials and some expert
05:50
advisors hope that we will soon reach uh hurt immunity which i completely disagree with as i have explained recently in in one of the q a's so despite all these good news and these are facts and data why then am i saying that this pandemic is not is not at all moving into the right direction and
06:22
in order to be able to understand this one has to take a look at the effect of mass vaccination on the transmission dynamics of of this pandemic the transmission of the variants and also the evolution of the variance because when i'm saying that it's not evolving or going into the right direction it is of course due to the variance
06:52
so uh let's maybe have um a look at and i i've made a cartoon to make this um more clear hopefully and if we if you look at for example the situation that is currently most representative or the most representative situation which is which is happening in occurring in in many countries right now we see that we are starting these mass
07:25
vaccinations on what i call a background of relatively high morbidity so this is to say that countries often start mass vaccination when of course there is already a substantial number of cases of disease and infection rates are high so what is then happening is uh is very clearly the following you see that people who are vulnerable so typically the elderly
07:58
will get the disease and they can of course also infect other vulnerable people but when the infection pressure increases when many people get illness and and especially people who get a disease shed a lot of virus the infectious pressure will increase and then it's even possible that even people at a younger age that are less vulnerable and who were previously protected due to their natural immunity
08:29
get a disease and i have explained this multiple times that this is due to the fact that when the infectious pressure increases the likelihood that somebody who got previously protected was asymptomatically infected will now be exposed to the virus at a time where his long-lived antibodies are still present then this person becomes much more susceptible because the short-lived
09:01
antibodies that are directed against the spike protein will suppress the natural antibodies and so the increase in infectious pressure is clearly responsible for shifting to some extent the disease to a younger population group and that is what we have been seeing all along in several different countries so now when you start to mass vaccinate people what is going to happen well first of all very clearly you will prevent
09:32
in a substantial way the number of cases of disease because you will protect vulnerable people essentially when you start your vaccination campaign into this most vulnerable group for example the elderly people who are immunosuppressed etc and have underlying diseases but on top because you protect these people from disease so there will be much less virus shaped and much less virus circulating you will automatically have a beneficial impact also on younger age groups
10:05
because you will also indirectly protect them from becoming more susceptible and and getting the disease so that is what we are currently seeing the effect of the mass vaccination where the mortality and mobility rates are going down to some extent in a very spectacular way one must say so but what does this mean what does this now mean in terms of virus transmission virus circulation
10:36
in for example the people who get vaccinated because what we know is that people who are vaccinated they cannot completely eliminate the virus when they are infected when they become infected why is this well there is a number of reasons but uh bear in mind that variants were already circulating before we started the mass vaccination campaigns and so when people who are vaccinated
11:09
come in contact with variants they cannot eliminate this virus completely because their vaccinal antibodies do not match very very well with the spike protein of the variants because the spike protein in the variance is a different version as you all know from the one that is used in the vaccines so that means that this vaccinees can still spread the virus right
11:40
that is one game on the other hand uh these people are also subject to very often suboptimal immune pressure what i mean by this is that while the when they are in the process of mounting antibodies after the first shot between the first and the second shot etc their antibodies are still not not optimal and so when you combine all these factors the low infectious pressure or the lower
12:13
infectious pressure due to mass vaccination combined with the fact that the asymptomatically infected vaccinees can still spread the virus and this combined with suboptimal immune pressures this makes in fact of vaccines a kind of reservoir where the virus can circulate and where variants
12:43
that have mutations that enable them to become more infectious that enable the failure to become more infectious will have a competitive advantage so this is to say that these mutations will allow more infectious variants to dominate in the population simply because they are going to be able to reproduce more effectively under these conditions than the wild stream
13:14
so this means that you are generating a kind of breeding ground and that will expand the more you vaccinate the more this breeding ground that consists of asymptomatically infected vaccines will expand and so will evolve the infectiousness of those variants so now when variants become more infectious and when more infectious variants become dominant in the
13:45
population you will of course almost by definition increase the infectious pressure and when you increase the infectious pressure you are facing again the same situation as before namely that people who are completely healthy and were not vaccinated they will though have a higher chance of getting re-infected
14:19
while they are still having suboptimal antibodies that suppress their natural antibodies so in other words if the infectious pressure increases the likelihood that somebody who's not vaccinated becomes now more susceptible to the disease increases and that was not previously the case because remember if variants circulate vaccinated people may breed them
14:51
and may bring them to a higher level of infectiousness but normally as long as the infectious pressure is relatively low people who are not vaccinated and healthy they are perfectly capable of coping with all these variants because their natural antibodies their innate antibodies do not discriminate between between those variants but the disadvantage of natural immunity of natural antibodies is
15:21
always that they cannot cope with a high load this is well described in the literature naturally made antibodies cannot cope with a high viral load so when the infectious pressure increases that becomes a problem for the non-vaccinated people and hence we are going to see that as a result of that we are now going to see increased morbidity in non-vaccinated people and so there is an interesting
15:53
observation and and uh i will um uh come back to this but [Music] and it has to do it has to do really with the enhanced enrollment of younger people so on one hand side one will see that what you gain on one hand side the protection of for example the elderly and the diminished number of cases of mortality and morbidity
16:24
you will lose this advantage when the vaccination campaigns are advancing and when the vaccine coverage rate increases because you will now start to generate more infectious variants or you will infections variants that existed already you will promote their propagation because you are generating conditions that are just fantastic for these most infectious variants and by doing so you increase the morbidity and the
16:57
mortality in the non-vaccinated people so what you gain on one hand side you're losing it on the other hand side and it's very clear that the more youngsters and the more children you will enroll in those campaigns the more the increased susceptibility susceptibility of the non-vaccinated group will outweigh in fact the benefit of vaccinating the the elderly
17:27
and the vulnerable people so that is very very important uh to to bear in mind so what um does this mean when we now do uh the the the mathematics and the calculations or we have a more mathematical representation of this if you look at the at the following curves so what you will see in the first curve and on the y-axis we have the reproduction number
17:59
which is a measure for the the infectious pressure and which parallels usually the rate of morbidity and on the x-axis you have the the vaccine coverage rate and so when vaccine coverage rates increase you have a decrease in the infectious pressure decrease in morbidity etc we discussed this already and that's what we are seeing right now so but but what happens is that uh at some point in time
18:33
you will start to see more and more infectious variants uh circulating and that is uh the the next curve that you're seeing in red where you see that after a lag time there will be your breathing in fact the vaccinees are breathing more infectious variants and due to these more infectious variants the infectious pressure will increase and as this infectious
19:04
pressure increases also the likelihood that non-vaccinated people become ill increases so in fact to have a realistic order a real idea of the total infectious pressure that is occurring in a population you have in fact to add these both curves and because on one hand side there is a strong diminishment but on the other hand side
19:35
the infectious pressure due to the more infectious variants is is increasing and when you add up both components we we end up with what we call the resultant and when you look at this resultant you will see that well first of all you have the decrease in the infectious pressure but then at some point and it's indicated by a you will have a kind of plateau this decline will
20:06
decrease because you have now increased infectious pressure due to the circulating more infectious variants and this plateau will continue till the increase in the infectious pressure due to the more infectious variants is no longer compensated by the decrease in the infectious pressure that is due to a decrease in morbidity in in in the vaccinated people
20:36
so that infectious pressure will then ultimately go up again so why are we not made aware of this so why are we not seeing this well remember before we vaccinate when we talk about infectivity when we talk about reproduction number when we talk about infectious pressure before we vaccinate we take into account all groups this is to say we not only uh the people who get a disease
21:08
are tested uh of course also people who die or are tested but also people who are completely healthy and they are also were also to some extent uh tested to see what is the infectious pressure in the population no no interestingly enough after we have started vaccination we no longer test healthy people although all we have been doing is
21:40
turning these healthy people into vaccines into healthy vaccines so why all of a sudden we do not longer test vaccines healthy vaccines we tested them before before they were vaccinated because this gave us a good impression of the rate of positivity of positive tests in the population once we vaccinate them you know countries have stopped
22:11
and health officials have stopped to recommend testing vaccines and that is why we are completely missing this infectious pressure that is now building up due to the more infectious variants circulating this is to say we do not test people who are um vaccinated and healthy we only test them if there is a breakthrough case if they get a disease or if they land into the hospital or even or if they if they die
22:42
and so that is basically uh the reason why the dots between a and b cannot be connected what we will see is that we will have degrees on the left hand side the curve that is declining of the morbidity and then there will be a black box and we will see again pandemic developing when on the right hand side on the red curve the infectious pressure
23:14
mounds to an extent that is such that there will be enhanced morbidity now in the non-vaccinated people and that is where we will again see cases and that is where again people will will be tested but between a and b we are not seeing anything because we are not measuring uh anything and um that is of course uh that is of course uh a problem and when we will see all of a sudden the mobility
23:45
increasing in the non-vaccinated people then of course all of a sudden health authorities will say well see that's the problem these people should should take the fancy because then we can prevent this but remember this in its own right proves already that we don't have and we will never achieve when we continue like this hurt immunity because this is exactly the opposite of what hurt immunity is supposed to be herd immunity means that the more you
24:17
vaccinate people the more you protect those that are not vaccinated because you diminish you should diminish uh viral excretion and viral shedding and to some extent that is true but on the other hand again by diminishing his infectious pressure and having a lot of vaccinees that have suboptimal conditions and in the presence of low infectious pressure highly infectious variants get a competitive advantage and hence you will increase infectious pressure to an extent that
24:49
the non-vaccinated kid get a disease so this is a very very important evolution to understand and it already illustrates that the enhanced vaccination is not going to lead to to hurt immunity so now the faster the vaccine coverage rates grow because as you all know you have different speeds i would say vaccination in
25:20
different countries some countries are vaccinating very aggressively and others are progressing more slowly but the faster the vaccine coverage rate grows the faster the decline in the morbidity rate will be so this is uh the curve on the left-hand side that is declining if you have very aggressive mass vaccination campaign it will decline very very fast but um and it can even it can even decline uh till zero it
25:51
theoretically and also practically and that's what we are seeing in some countries like the the seychelles etc that have no reach like a very very low morbidity and and uh mortality rates that are almost zero but in the meantime and the faster you vaccinate the the more important will basically be the lag time for the variance to become dominant in the population and and that is also very normal because of
26:22
course if you have very low infectious pressure then of course it will take some time for the virus to to grow and to transmit to numbers that are large enough in order for these infectious variants to become dominant so this is this is what is currently happening and as you will appreciate also for from the from the graphs
26:52
it is exactly at this very moment where the decline is maximal that we are relaxing the containment measure the infection prevention measures so this of course is no going to enhance even the contact between healthy people vaccines and non-vaccines and as you know some of these vaccines are not no longer wearing masks even and and are not recommended to wear masks in
27:23
some states for example of the us so exactly at this very moment where it is become so critical and where the infectious the more infectious variants are breathing more and more because we get more and more people vaccinated exactly at that point in time you are increasing the contact between the vaccine the vaccines and the non-vaccinated people so that is in fact that is in fact not
27:53
not good news so um what is what can we do about this or what is what is the current recommendation what is the solution well the solution officials will say well see you will have enhanced uh disease in uh the non-vaccinated so we need to vaccinate these people as soon as possible and these are basically
28:25
the younger people and the children so but enhance vaccine coverage rates what will they do they will again if we see this increased infection rates in the uh and disease rates in in in the don't vaccinated people it will of course raise the infectious pressure again if you vaccinate them you will again bring down this infectious pressure okay but you will not get rid of these sub optimal conditions because these people are vaccinated they will still be
28:58
mounting antibodies they will still going through a number of phases where their immune response is suboptimal and again this combination of low infectious pressure and suboptimal immune pressure will still favor and promote infectious variants to evolve but now they will be evolving to withstand a higher level of infections of immune pressure why well because we are continuing vaccinations so
29:28
more and more people get their second shot more and more people get a full-fledged new response ready now and therefore the immune pressure will increase but again what i was saying we are still having this optimal uh conditions so now the virus will be able to overcome this higher level of immune pressure which will ultimately lead in fact to resistance of the vaccines and and the resistance of the virus towards the vaccine
29:59
and that is what if we continue this mass vaccination i'm sure uh will uh will happen so um [Music] the mantra that uh mass vaccination basically diminishes the replication of the virus and that the the less virus that you have the less likelihood that variants will circulate that doesn't apply but of course we will not be able to prove this
30:31
to demonstrate this because you know officials and advising experts will continue to tell well we cannot control this viral replication and therefore we have this huge uh explosion of uh of variance and the only way we will be able to prove them wrong is when we can for god's sake start to analyze viral shedding viral shedding in the uh in the vaccines in
31:03
the vaccinated people and also do the sequencing of those viruses because then and only then will we be able to see that the escape mutations that we see in the virus shed are not randomly selected but they are first of all selected to be able to withstand a higher immune pressure and to enable higher infectiousness this is
31:33
one thing and as things evolve these mutations will now also evolve towards selection of mutations that are now even able to resist vaccinal antibodies so if we do that if we if we verify viral shedding in the vaccinated people and we do the sequencing we will be able to demonstrate and to prove that these selections are not randomly selected but they are really selected in a way that infectiousness of the virus is increased
32:04
and ultimately resists vaccinal antibodies so immunizing more young youngsters and and and children is is scientifically just completely wrong it's not going to help it's just going to enhance to expedite resistance to the vaccine and when that occurs of course it doesn't help anybody it doesn't help the youngsters nor the elderly when you're vaccinated and again when this occurs uh it's not a good situation for vaccinated people because their
32:38
fractional antibodies will no longer work but they will still suppress their innate antibodies and then some people say well you know there is a cellular immunity that is cross-protective etc no because people who are vaccinated they are not primed for this protective cellular responses the vaccines do not induce cell mediated immunity that is protective and that is capable of eliminating virus infected cells
33:08
and the other group the people who are not vaccinated they will still be able to withstand uh all kinds of mutants uh all kinds of variants even with high infectiousness provided provided the infectious pressure remains low so these people will have to avoid contacts with for example vaccinees who are now who will now be spreading the virus and they can cope with different viral variants but they will not be able to rely on
33:39
self-induced immunity either because they have not been primed when they are asymptomatically infected and second they can only withstand the variance if they have low infectious pressure people who will still be better off may still be better off with those who got a natural infection because their immune system got fully primed as well as the cell-mediated immunity so what should we do i mean this is all very negative i agree and and therefore again again we have to
34:11
turn the tide we have to stop this mass vaccination immediately that is one thing we have to capitalize now on early treatment and also on chemoprophylaxis to dramatically diminish this huge infectious pressure that is now brought about by the um highly infectious variants and that are is going to be the reason and the cause why why the waves are going to go up again are going to reappear and we will see enhanced
34:41
cases of disease in the non-vaccinated non-vaccinated people and last but not least we still we need to work on on on a new type of vaccines not the type of second generation of vaccines because they won't help they have the same problem but a type of vaccines that is first not interfering with the immunity of the kovit 19 vaccines and that is capable of inducing
35:12
sterilizing immunity even though natural antibodies are suppressed so this is to say in capable of inducing sterilizing immunity in people who have been vaccinated with the current coffee 19 vaccines and i'm convinced that this is the only way to revert the vulnerable immune status of vaccines that will occur once we have resistance against the
35:42
vaccine into uh protective immune status again so that i think is going to be a very important and with that i would like to conclude and thank you for your attention

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