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00:01

all right welcome back to the channel
everyone who's returning welcome in to
all of those of you who are new and here
for the first time my name is gerardo
we're going to be talking about hex and
more specifically this gaussian channel
that we started developing in
yesterday's video and it's coming to
fruition quite nicely as you can see
here i've color coded it
with its respective regions all right
respective colors
similar to the regression rainbow right
and it slightly ties into that model as
well so we'll touch on all of that in
this video do a little bit of ta and

00:33

then finish off
for something like a 10 15 minute video
probably so
that's the target okay
if you are familiar with the regression
rainbow you can go ahead and skip ahead
a little bit a couple minutes but to
those of you who are not familiar
what we did to obtain this model is
pretty pretty simple i guess if you can
do a linear regression so
all we did was we took this region over
here
we pretty much took a bunch of a local
minima right which means bottom regions

01:04

so we took this region right here one
two three four
and and we got multiple data points in
each little region so we had clusters
which we fit a line through on a log
scale and when we do that we get a set
of a set of lines depending on
on how far extended we were above that
fit right so we got an extension from
fit as you can see here it's simply
price normalized to the model
and shows how it pretty much stays
within
um and other than that we also
underlayed what eath did relative to its

01:35

regression rainbow but staying on track
right
we got this extension from our fit chart
and this is what's important because
this is where the actual fair value end
day moving average
model came from right and i let you know
one and i think two videos ago that we
were going to revamp that model and
what's the word uh make it more robust
mathematically
due to some things that were pointed out
i don't won't get too much in depth into
that
but

02:06

that's what we went ahead and did we
took
the
extension from our exponential fit right
so our exponential fit is this red
red line right so our extension from
that is this white curve so we took our
average on any given day it's for
example on day 100 it was 100 day moving
average on day 500 it's a 500-day moving
average so it's a dynamic moving average
that
increases in length every single day
right

02:37

i hope you're following and then what
you do from there is you do some
statistics on it so that's what i went
ahead and did
and we got the stats
we got the stats boom we got
our sigma value which is our standard
deviation and the way i define standard
deviation here is slightly different
than the usual definition where you
usually get a difference between the
actual and the expected here we got a
ratio because we're on a log chart i
explained this in yesterday's video how
if you do it with a traditional

03:07

difference of actual minus expected
and you do all your squaring and all
that you you get curves that diverge
right versus something clean like this
which actually
is useful
so we use a ratio instead of a
difference in that sense we got our
standard deviation
defined via ratios which is about 1.7
1.7 x so that's the factor by which
everything here is is spread out if that
makes sense so what was traditionally

03:37

our fair value was actually our
you know dynamic moving average from
from our
on our fare extension or our dynamic
moving average on our extension from
exponential fit that's this green curve
and
when you do this whole sigma business
right you get that 1.7 which i just
described it's like 1.69
then you get and you can do the math
yourself like just multiply for example
the green curve by 1.69 ish and you'll
get the blue curve you can also just
divide them to find that ratio yourself
and so they're spaced by that ratio and

04:08

it's shown on a log chart here and i
like this chart because it actually does
a
you know
it what is it called you do a
statistical method on it which is
finding your sigma finding your your
variance all of that
and
you're doing it on an actual average
which is what you're supposed to do
right versus we were doing it on a
regression model which i don't know if
you're actually supposed to do that
again it's less tied to the regression
model now it still is because we're
doing it on our extension from our fit

04:40

right we're doing the math on that in
the first place but it's less dependent
if that makes sense
i'm not sure if that's the right
terminology
you know this is a model that's
developing obviously that's why it's
kind of a mini series part one part two
but this is what we have so far and to
get into the actual usefulness of it
right i don't want to bore you guys with
the math i mean just look at the points
where we've hit right when we hit um
blue over here it seemed to be
resistance came down to yellow hit blue
then we found nice support on green and
then it blasted off into pink right and
then it came back road to the green a

05:11

little bit fell back down came back to
the red actually touched the red here on
this one occasion so it's not exactly
like the exponential rainbow
uh but it's it's similar right it's
similar
actually came to the red zone once then
it's it was bouncing around here and you
can see that it found this nice
re-accumulation
and you can kind of just see that for
the last
wow yeah for the last like 100 days or
so it's simply been between yellow and
green just oscillating nicely right up
to the green down to yellow to green

05:42

down yellow up to green down to almost
yellow back up to green
i like the fact that it didn't quite
reach yellow that's a little more
bullish in my opinion all right like
notice over here it reached red and then
not quite red then even farther away
somewhere over here we reached beneath
yellow
basically on yellow a little above
yellow and then a little more above
yellow so i like the fact that it's
getting more bullish relative to these
models as well
yeah this looks this looks good to me i
like it it reminds me of a long really
long extended version of something like
this right here where we you know we're

06:13

breaking our all-time highs found some
consolidation
broke all-time highs this is uptrend
consolidation type i mean this is just
like
one of the best charts i've ever seen if
not the best chart alright so i like
this i mean what did it take back here
to actually blast off was finding
support on green which is interesting
it's like finding support on your
midline your
your
your mean right so in that sense you'll
be finding support on the 20 cent level
which technically speaking that'd be
amazing right finding support

06:44

around the 20 level it's similar to what
we're seeing now because a nice bullish
consolidation above all-time highs
that'd be even more bullish we had a
further move and then extended
or we extended a little farther in this
move came back down and maybe
consolidated around the the green level
over here that would give me a signal
that we might be headed to potentially
cyan purple or even pink which currently
stand at
approximately 33 cents 67 cents in a
dollar

07:14

it's kind of nice right a nice uh little
spread there
but
but
we're gonna update the the website
right we're gonna get rid of this fair
value model and more or less just make
it better because it's gonna use this
what we're calling fair value just
renaming using some different naming
conventions we're going to be getting
rid of this midline which you can
already get in the regression rainbow
anyways right it's this green line it's
the same one so you can get it there
anyways so instead of recycling the

07:46

model we're kind of making it a little
more independent uh so
yeah i mean we'll probably find some
more stuff to
um i actually don't want to say anything
on that end right because we have three
charts here
so we'll just have one right so we're
kind of cleaning things up a bit and
you'll probably get this within
i would say within 24 hours or so it's
pretty easy to update so i'll do that
for you right now and
what is the actual
i should have touched on this we touched

08:16

on it in yesterday's video but the
actual kind of meaning of a gaussian
distribution
is simply that the majority of your data
should be within
like plus or minus three sigma in this
case times were divided by three sigma
where sigma is your standard deviation
defined by ratios
and yeah so for the most part you should
have what is it
99.73 percent of all of your price
action should be with within
red and pink and it seems about right
yeah like we only had slight

08:48

action outside of pink we had maybe a
little bit of action beneath red right
here for a day or so but for the most
part we're we're just in here
and then
95 of your data should be within
um
orange
and purple right
and it looks about right it looks about
right for the most part you only have
certain regions down here where
you get beneath um
orange a few times and you only have
like one region over here we actually

09:18

got above purple interesting yeah so
this this works this works quite nicely
and then you can also say that 68 of
your data will be within
um the blue and yellow right
so it's kind of like a probable
probabilistic model you could look at it
like that so that's the model for you we
can do a little bit of ta i really
wanted to actually do some ta on this
bull flag right here um
so let's do that i haven't done this yet
so this will be kind of real time i've
been meaning to get to this

09:48

you could probably do it from the wick
and then also just from the candle so
let's do it from the wick first wick to
wick
a nice move from 8.7 cents to about 20
cents it's pretty good
and if assuming this is a bull flag
right some consolidation after a poll
then if it broke out
it would put us at around 30 cents
in september right
sometimes these
play out slower than the actual first
poll so maybe not september 9th but deep
into september perhaps but 30 cents

10:20

would be the target if this is a bull
flag wick to wick if we just take it
from
body to body
then it'd be something a little more
conservative
putting us closer to just the 27 cents
right as opposed to 30 cents so 27 to 30
not bad not bad at all if it does get
there what i like about these bullish
targets is that it coincides with the
targets where we said okay we did the
same thing here right wick to wick

10:50

after our breakout assuming this is a
bull flag which we were looking at for
the longest time
we even tweeted out when it broke out to
the upside someone's excited about bull
flags
but we said if it breaks out then our
target looks something like 27 cents so
it coincides nicely with these targets
these don't necessarily predict time so
you kind of have to
yeah it's harder to predict when and i
know people say like
what is what good is a price prediction
if you don't include the time component

11:21

and that's true that's true you'd have
to do a little more analysis and say
okay in previous bull flags for example
this one
how long did it take
compared to what we thought it would
take to get to these levels right we
thought it would do it in 15 days based
on this poll but it actually took an
extra you know almost uh
it's almost three weeks so over 2x time
to actually reach that 12 to 24 centary
that we were talking about

11:51

right um let's see just rough math
about 16 days and then from there to
there
about 21 days yeah it's a little over 2x
so in this case a little over 2x of time
from here
ah 7 16 7016 yeah put us into like late
september late september so
those are kind of your your targets
right and these are conservative targets
like 27 to 30 cents late september
if we do what we have a habit of doing
which is doubling our technical targets
then

12:24

you know that could be anywhere from
you know
25 to
60 cents right because this target is 30
cents so 30 times 2 is 60. and our least
bullish target was when we did just
candle to candle
on this move right here i believe
and place it at the breakout
actually this is 21 so
i guess you could say 20 cents to 60
cents would be your kind of range to
look at
with
actual targets kind of like 27 to 30

12:58

cents as kind of like the mid-range of
that big range i mean i wouldn't trade
on this data this is what i think is
going to happen i have no clue what's
going to happen obviously
um probably no one does but hey we can
we can speculate and have fun right so i
appreciate you watching that's pretty
much all i wanted to cover in this video
go join the telegram group i'll leave a
link to that down below we're almost at
300 members and you guys are having good
discussions in there and you get the
first um notification when we drop new
videos so
yeah go ahead and join that group and um

13:28

i will catch you guys in a future video
peace

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