Trading Futures with Anthony Crudele #8 - Larry Williams, Kate Lemere, Dan Hodgman, & Dani Sittloh

Trading Futures with Anthony Crudele #8 - Larry Williams, Kate Lemere, Dan Hodgman, & Dani Sittloh

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00:00
hey everybody welcome to trading futures with me Anthony Cordell II we have an awesome show for you today I will be joined by legendary trader Larry Williams fitness expert Kate Lemire trader and performance coach Dan Hodgman and last but not least futures trader Danny sit low welcome to trading futures so Larry
00:32
fifty-seven years as a trader can you share with us some of the keys to sustaining such a long successful career as a trader keep breathing I think really need a lack of confidence because you get overconfident you'll bet too big and you lose all your money so to have an absolute fear of the market I think is very healthy and not be overconfident and beast gets a beast and be afraid of the beast then you can either battle the beast but if you think you can knock
01:04
this beast out of the park every week every day I I am been able to and I don't know anybody that has no I definitely don't either Larry we're gonna talk about a couple of things today cycles and commitment of traders explain to us what we're gonna learn when we go to the charts about cycles I think there are time cycles how markets move that there's lows every four years in the stock market has a rough idea of it and the things are cyclical in life we have good times bad times hot weather cold weather and prices have
01:35
a cyclical effect and I think they tell us not the magnitude of the move but when a move should take place so that can be helpful I have a pretty good idea of stocks will start to rally the end of August first part of September this year so I want to I can focus on that as a trader at that time to look for buy signals so that's how I use cycles and about time not magnitude and the commitment of trader reporting as a report published by United States government every Thursday that shows that what the small speculators are
02:06
doing the guys on the street the funds what they're buying and selling and what the large users and producers called the commercial what they're really doing with real money in the marketplace invaluable insight I've been using that the first person since 1973 and it's been a hallmark of my career to understand how big money comes in and out of the commodity markets started trading in 1962 and today we're gonna talk about market cycles and commitment of traders why are those two they seem to be some of your favorite topics to talk about
02:37
cycles tell us when but they don't tell us magnitude as I mentioned the commitment of triggered part says hey these guys are really loaded up their heavily long corn or soybeans or whatever the market is or they're heavily short cold well most likely we're gonna have a really good move to the downside so it gives me the the direction and the magnitude because clearly you look back at the history of what large traders have done or what the commercials have done over the last 30 40 years they're almost always correct
03:08
at a significant market high so if I can know that I know where the major market higher major market look I can take an important position because what I think is the key to making money anthony is to have a small position catch a large move that way if I have a small position I lose I have a small loss but if I have a small position catch when these big moves I can make 10 15 times my money so I think that's really the mathematical formula that works of the market small
03:39
positions which limits your loss and as a potential for a very large gain now do you prefer cycles and commitment of traders over indicators well I use other indicators T I'm looking what I call a conditional trader I'm not a technical trader so I look for conditions cycles accumulation in the market what the commercials are doing valuation and the market supply demand in the market and the difference between a stock and a commodity people really need gold we can't live for rest of our life without wheat you can live rest of your
04:12
life without owning a share of Amazon or IBM or Google but this is real stuff so we have real fundamental stuff that sets up a market that's the condition for the move then I bring in the technical stuff for the timing of the move most people just that's all tactical no I think you have conditions technicals or timing before we go to the charts what is one attribute that you believe every trader should have fear you'd be terribly frightened of this and manage your money
04:42
correctly never bet big you bet big you will lose big so money management is the first thing that I talk with about people if you don't manage your money correctly at some point you will lose your money all of it you ready to go to the charts yeah let's do it alright everybody next up Larry night we'll talk about kettle and corn stay tuned this is my headquarters this is where I trade and manage my portfolio since I added futures I have access to
05:13
the oil markets and markets ok I'm plugged into equities trade confirmed and I have global access 24/7 meeting I can do what I need to do then I can focus on what I want to do is it learn futures today calm to see what adding futures can do for you welcome back everybody larry is still with us Larry what are you seeing in kettle and corn let me show you starting with our charts of course and a cycle forecast cattle
05:47
notice that about every six seven months we've seen lows good buying opportunities in the cattle market it looks like we have another one coming up oh the anticipation be first part of October we should come into a cyclical low remember these are timing areas they don't tell us the magnitude of the move but timing if we want to get to the magnitude of the move here's where I really like to use the commitment of traders report what we're looking at is going way back to 2014 and on a weekly chart the Green Line shows what the
06:18
small speculators in the market and it happens to be in the meat markets the small guys are really good these people have cattle themselves they don't trade in hundred contracts so they're not registered as a larger commercial trader but they're they've been or look buying market rallies market rallies heavy buyers market rallies market rallies and they've just become buyers in the market place so I think another reason a fundamental reason to think that cattle prices can go higher so you find that
06:48
that style works a lot better in eggs the small speculators work really well in hogs and cattle not so good in the other markets but their producers are just small producers so that's a setup condition then I can look at other setup conditions like crude oil I think leads cattle prices because it's the cost of doing business so the soybean meal you've got a feed soybean meal that's the largest feed for cattle as your fattening them up along with corn prices so we see cattle a corn
07:19
I'm sorry we see that crude oil has been a good forecaster of what happens in cattle prices we knew this point you know 65 days in advance so this is an indication cattle should continue moving higher then get down into that September buy period that's coming up that's where I can combine a couple of indicators to get a forecast for the market its confirmation right so you're looking at multiple things and then if they all wind up then you really got something there yeah when I was a kid there was an ad for Anacin and the radio said it
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works like a doctor's prescription a combination of ingredients like AHA that's all I should trade I want a combination thing not just a chart not just this not I want a bunch of fundamental conditions that say it should rally then bring in the technical stuff to say Buy Now or sell now we can also look at the large traders and the commitment of traders report and open interests open interest is the total number of contracts traded when everybody's really bullish we're usually a market highs in the market there's
08:21
open interest very high everyone bullish market declines everybody's really bullish we'll get into market decline especially if while everyone's bullish the commercials are selling this shows net long net selling if they're heavily short and the public is heavily bullish markets decline currently we're in a good situation commercials have been buying open into this coming down that causes a rally that we've seen let's take a look for a moment at corn which I think is getting up for a sell signal on
08:51
the market we see the cycles in court have been pretty in this market it's a good cyclical market it suggests we're at a high and should continue moving lower so I'm looking for short sales from the market but again I'll use the technical stuff to get in the short side the cycles you say look for a buy look for a buy look for a sell up here all right stay here for a moment because what I want to pick your brain a little bit about is you see this cycle you see other confirmations we'll call them that are lining up when
09:23
do you then pull the trigger are you using technical indicators at that point I do I confess to that yeah guilty as charged I will I like to use my wins percent are which have been around for 50 years now when the markets are overbought on a short-term basis I think the markets going to go up cycle forecast the market has a bit of a pullback in here I want to be a buyer in these pull backs as long as my belief is the markets gonna go higher we can look at a next chart and see you again backing up how this works in the market
09:54
place if we look at corn where we saw cyclical should go down the small speculators in corn haven't been good and we go back now to 2003 this is the longest position the largest number Long's the small traders have had in what 16 years and the commercial is the largest short position they've had and when they get heavily short the market we usually see declines so I think corn is setting up for a sell signal fundamentally especially we see the
10:24
small speculators are wildly crazy bullish in this market think is gonna go up they're usually wrong so I want to look for sell signals in the market let's also stay here for a moment is that what I want to ask you is how let's just say you did get into this trade how would you know you're wrong how are you determining a stuff well I'm losing money right away which happens often but when I get in the market I really don't care about these price points on the market I care about the money in my bank account in my trading account so I don't want to lose more than percentage of my
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money about 4% so that's the most I'm going to lose so I have a dollar stop I'm not going to lose it's usually about $1,000 a contract somewhere in that area that's I don't want to lose a lot of money so I absolute stop and hopefully a target the prices will go to and then do you trail stops along the way I do if I Marcus e we're short here it starts coming down stop lower the stop well I'm stopped out but I took a nice profit so I may go to my target I may not I still need to have something to protect me from I can be wrong this is the trend is change I got
11:26
to be careful of that gotcha another point about the small speculators that's really important is they're almost always net short at market lows so when these guys are not interested in the market the markets usually rally and it's just the opposite when the commercials are heavily long and the small speculators are negative on the market that's where we get big rallies in the marketplace that's true of all markets it doesn't matter except the SPS all AG markets are driven by the commercials and the small speculators bless or so they're almost
11:58
always wrong so I pay a lot of attention to the wrong guys from the market because if they're wrong just do the opposite of what they do great explanations Larry but we're not done yet we have a few more markets to discuss everybody next up Larry and I will discuss Gould eat me the SP and crude oil stay tuned why trade with TradeStation its innovative easy to use and totally freaking sweet with powerful tools to track and execute your trades and Loper trade commission's on stocks futures and options upgrade your trade at
12:29
TradeStation comm welcome back everybody Larry and I are still at the charts Larry show us what you're seeing in gold crude oil and emini S&P let's take a look as they say we're going to start looking at the cycles in crude oil it's been a very cyclical market it's about a 90 day cycle in this market you can see we have significant highs about every 95 days in the market which means we've got one coming up around the 1st of August for between now and then there's a bullish bias to the market but I'll be
13:00
definitely looking for cells around the first part of August I mean we see in the past is a pretty good money-making opportunities but that's just about timing that's all the cycles tell us we should have a buy point here in a year and year by point over here there's a sell coming up but can we back it up with something that's more important yes and we can do that with a couple of things I've found that um gold leads the price of crude oil this is an overlap of just the price of gold extended a few days into the future and as you can see we knew there
13:32
was going to be a top in the crude oil we knew that about 50 days in advance and I made a lot of money selling crude oil in here as our friend crush all who will be on with you as well had a pretty good idea we would rally so right now we also see oh the bullish bias based on this inner market relationship is bullish until again about August at that point we'll be re looking at the charts to look for a short sale a position in the market I'm not a little in and out trader I want to ideally sell here buy here buy over here get out here I'm a longer-term
14:03
player in the market what's your typical whole time hmm probably three weeks three weeks yeah I wish it could be longer and sometimes it's shorter but the big money is made buying here and getting out there that's $100,000 move in here it's a $100 move I'm playing up for a much bigger move in the market we can do that with gold I think if the market is really getting out to be so short look at the cycle forecasts significant high significant high we're at a significant high in the gold market
14:33
a low about the 24th 25th of October that's a cycle forecast all this stuff can be wrong though so I have to be prepared we talked about in the last segment I've got to have my stop losses my targets but I can back that up looking at the fundamentals in the market place we've talked about the small speculators right well the small speculators in gold we're going back to 2013 we're wildly bullish and gold at the peak wildly bullish and gold at the peak and again they're wildly bullish of gold so I
15:05
think the small speculative will be wrong again especially if I see the commercials too large people that produce and use the miners and the jewelers are heavily short the gold mark in fact that's the most short they've been since 2016 most likely markets gonna go down and the that's the way to bet that might not be the fastest horse of the race but the odds are in his favor so you have all of these confirmations once again like we talked about in the
15:35
last segment let's just say that we get to a point where you're going to take a short how are you going to determine when you're gonna get in how you're gonna determine your loss what are some of the things you'd be doing let's go back to the last chart I've got a congestion area up in here so really of breaking out above or below I could use that as a trend change in the market what I love to see is a pattern right here the market has a big break rallies back and then it has a lower short-term high here than here I want to be a seller over there that's my favorite
16:06
entry technique on the short side oh that's your favorite okay my very favorite we can look at stocks for just a moment my long-term cycle forecast interesting not based on stock prices but on the advanced decline line much smoother than stock prices we talked about erratic stock prices are well we've got a good buy point coming up around the 9th of August the first part of September well this has been a strong 80 day cycle in the market setting up buying points we're going to decline now but there's a really good buy point coming up I think around the 1st of
16:37
September in stock prices and we can see that based on the interest rate forecast inter market relationships also suggest to dip into that September and then another move to the upside so I use fundamentals and cycles to give me a leading indicator what these markets are going to do how can other people get these cycles well as you could do the work themselves first of all that's how I did all of it or the short circuit come to our website I really trade calm and I do my weekly market commentaries and I really trade and as you know in
17:08
large amount so it isn't I don't do this stuff just for people I do it for my own trading as well so when you started doing these cycles this is just all your homework and then you put these there's all original work I've developed my own indicators over the last almost 60 years that are fundamental technical and combining those together into a strategy a systematic strategy to say we want to be a buyer down here we want to be sellers up here based on stuff that usually is forecasted markets really well great stuff Larry our to everybody next
17:40
up we will hear from Dan Hodgman with top steps Melbourne of the week stay tuned why trade futures with TradeStation you can trade over 80 products from home work or on-the-go with a powerful easy-to-use interface and prices that let you focus on padding your wallet not emptying it upgrade your trade at TradeStation calm welcome back everybody I'm now joined by Dan Hodgman dan what's top steps moment of the week Anthony this week is really exciting we get to talk about big money it's so
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common when we're looking at futures trading especially when we're day trading one lots and two lots we're not seeing those big 2000 dollar trades well today one of our funded traders Vladimir out of Dubai a few weeks ago was able to take advantage of a really big downside and move in crude oil it was right around the time that we didn't really know was going on the market started to move there was a tweet that came out that said something along lines we're making a deal with Iran and vitomir had it pretty much set up he was waiting for a downside move the market as we can see
18:41
here looking on the daily chart the market started to except right below a long-term resistance and support language what we know is once that market breaks through a resistance line it becomes support well it broke through finally we also have an uptrend market that the market was starting to test below that trendline he was looking for a nice move what's so important though if you're looking for those big moves we always got to think about where's my out what am I looking for he found a really nice again support resistance line right around $58 and he was able to start to find an opportunity
19:12
and framed out his trade when we look a little bit closer here on the hourly chart we start to see that this market is looking towards the downside we're starting to make those lower lows lower highs last time the market tested above a little short-term trend line here it gave a really nice sell-off net for Vladimir was his sign of this is what I need to look for in today's trading he went ahead and got short three contracts right around 58 986 right around that
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resistance level his stop was extremely tight here he looked just on the other side up just over $60.00 for a stop and I was able to sit in that trade and he let it run out and got out of there at 5808 props to Vladimir great setup few questions absolutely one is this his typical strategy he looks at the daily chart looks for support resistance then moves to a 60-minute chart yes we try and teach a lot of our traders that take a look at that daily chart get an idea of what the higher
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time frame is showing to help kind of frame out exactly what you're looking for so once he looks at that daily chart and then he goes to the 60-minute is that his nice always that's always looking for he's trying to keep it simple for himself and he's just trying to manage that risk where are my asymmetric opportunities where's my risking to belittle but I got some big reward he actually took a couple opportunities throughout this day as he was trading those extremes and finally got the great setup he had been looking for all day that was gonna be my next question is he somebody who's gets
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in and holds because you know if this is typically you know a type of trades he's looking for these bigger moves mentally you're set up for it because you're ready to hold but if your intraday trading a lot and it's hard to all of a sudden say I'm gonna hold on to this absolutely and absolutely that's why we were looking here where do you look when you have a big downside move I've talked about measuring moving before I love the idea of a measured move I talked with a lot of my traders about them he found the last time that that market tested the resistance up above when it sold off
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he was able to use that as his measure move and said you know what I see opportunity to the downside here let's see how it does a question I get from everybody all the time is Anthony how do I hold on the trades longer I wish I knew that answer but I'm gonna go to Vlad Vladimir and did he trailers stop like how did he grind through that hole once the market let's go back here once the market started to test that lower support line on the trend that's when he started to look bringing up his stop and get in a little bit all right where is
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this gonna really go am I gonna make it all the way down to my profit let's make sure we lock something in before it gets all the way down there love it great stuff so just a couple lessons in execution this week obviously trend is your friend take advantage of that trend when the market is going let your winners run stay in it take advantage when it you have made that great entry point always we say it every time no you're out where am I getting out whether I'm or I'm wrong and then lastly the more defined you are in your trade the more opportunity you're going to be able to
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make money if you're just wildly throwing one on here and there and you don't really have it defined you're gonna struggle but when you really frame it out and you have your risk set up and you know exactly what that plan is you're gonna be able to execute a lot better I love this set up props to you Vladimir way to grind it out and to adapt to the conditions of the day absolutely lot said about that all right everybody great stuff as usual Dan thank you next up Danny sit low will join us to talk about what's on your radar using
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was Apple stay tuned this is my headquarters this is where I trade and manage my portfolio since I added futures I have access to the oil markets okay I'm plugged into equities trade confirmed and I have global access 24/7 meeting I can do what I need to do then I can focus on what I want to do visit learn futures today.com to see what adding futures can do for
23:18
you welcome back everybody I'm now joined by Danny sit low Danny what's on your radar hi AM so today I have two markets same strategy same indicator the S&P and Nasdaq already yep okay all right so the strategy is red sky momentum going with the trend it's a bearish alert emini S&P crosses below the 20-day moving average it's a five-hour outlook okay so short term right 58% chance it'll hit the lowers
23:51
target 42% chance it'll hit the upside target alright so 58% chance lower 42% higher and I say this all the time when we talk about moving average alerts what I like about these alerts for day traders five hour outlook and it gives you a percentage good confirmation you and I aren't trading off of moving averages but we like to see when they cross them some statistics to support where they think they can go lower or higher exactly and
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same time when this alert came out our friend the Nasdaq came out with the same alert same strategy same alert same indicator right same strategy right sky momentum same indicator it's a bearish alert it crosses the 20-day moving average same our outlook right so five hour outlook 61% it will hit the downside target 39% chance it'll hit the upside target I mean we talk about this all the time on
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Twitter in the podcast on this show conformation when you have correlating markets crossing through any indicator or anything that you're you know at the same time you could have a bigger move so you have both the NASDAQ and the e-mini S&P crossing below the 20-day moving average and both of them have I don't know what the S&P is percentage of what it was five 50s right and this is 60% so now you have this confirmation that there's a pretty good percentage we're going lower and you know and if it
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doesn't the percentages for higher right and what I like about it is they both came out at the same time there are the upside targets there are the downside targets and when they're out of sync with each other that's what I'm looking at as well right so when they're if one is slower to react from the extension of the move or if there isn't an extension of the move the other one reverses I'm looking at those pricing right those targets I mean it's great information it's backed by statistics I yeah well
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yeah especially when one of them may hit it and go through it might be a leading indicator that the other one may hit and if it doesn't that's an edge to everybody right it doesn't necessarily always have to be well if X happens X will happens either way information with with these types of percentages is I think is something you could utilize as an intraday edge absolutely great stuff Danny thank you thank you next up everybody in beyond the charts Kate Lemire tells us how to create motivation through discipline stay tuned
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hey everybody thank you for tuning in to the show to learn more about the charts I use was able alerts the basics of trading futures and how you can even get funded to trade futures please visit Anthony Cordell e.com now let me take you right back to trading futures welcome back everybody Larry is still with us and we are now joined by fitness expert Kate Lemire Kate thank you for joining me I think so much for having me okay you have a unique way of looking at two words that are used a lot in the trading
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industry motivation and discipline absolutely I think motivation is absolutely misunderstood and often we give it so much credit as being the driving force behind a lot of our goals when in fact it's cyclical it ebbs it flows it surges it fades and therefore is fairly unreliable however I think discipline is the true driving force behind our evolution and progression and having the ability to act regardless of external circumstance weather mood situation is the real
27:36
muscle to flex in order to get to where you want to go for all the traders out there listening to this what's the first steps that they can take to start thinking this way taking a goal and I'm packing it down to its most tactical level and getting as granular and specific as you can be there's so much more to goals than meets the eye it's really not just about losing the last five pounds right it's about implementing a fitness protocol a nutrition program managing sleep and stress and then finding the time for
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execution of all of the above and the more specific you can get the greater your foundation for success you can anticipate exactly what it requires to get you to where you want to go you know exactly what it takes and you're prepared to execute it and move forward something you talked a lot about when you and I were in the green room talking about what we're going to discuss today you said Anthony taking advantage of small opportunities everything thinking opportunistically about everything in your life really helps identify and achieve like small wins that help us
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feel so good that contributes to that motivation whether that be drinking more water or getting up and getting to the gym small choices good choices breed more good choices and it's huge domino effect and it's often easy to write off small opportunities or small decisions when real in reality they have the opportunity to be monumental on the back end I love when Kate said that because I thought about me as a traitor good decision-making is contagious bad decision-making is
29:10
contagious so move the dial from I've talked about this on Twitter a lot instead of one to ten one two to just make that small like you said opportunity small and steady wins the race less chance for burnout Larry I gotta go to you you you are 77 years old and you recently just participated in the Big Sky or was it stay montana big sky state game just attract me that the state of montana holds every year fortunately they have age divisions in my age division 75 to 80 I'm 77 I won every
29:42
event I was in but I also took last place because I was the only guy that age but it was fun I did 60-yard - hundred four hundred and the high jump that's amazing the high jump which is you know at my age you don't hide you I mean one thing we know about the markets is wealth is not health what's more important wealth or help I've had a lot of very wealthy friends billionaire to die and they have always said I would give you one day I give you all my money
30:12
if I have your health for one day ultimately health is a lot more important than wealth what a great perspective I'm gonna take that with me yeah yeah 57 years you've been trading Larry when did you start to focus on fitness and diet fitness why I was probably nine years old started boxing got beat up all the time I had gotten better shape and I was always been involved in athletics played football in college but later on and I went through every diet thing to think up and finally I realized you know my dad had the great
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wisdom he said Larry all this crazy stuff you're doing just anything in moderation don't go to these extremes and find out whatever I think everybody's body is different people respond differently the food to workout to exercise and you find the shoe that fits you and absolutely that's where you go that's your path the method is the one that works for you Kate back to you talk to us about berries and the 4% berries is a global Jim that started in 1998 and it really
31:16
was the first boutique fitness studio so it kind of started this multi-billion dollar industry and I'm so lucky to be a part of it I'm a Chicago founding trainer as well as a member of their corporate marketing team they have two locations here in Chicago and then 59 across the world it's high-intensity interval training treadmill running and strength training and it really is an incredible energy you can't beat it and that's the type of exercise that you primarily do yes absolutely I love it awesome where can
31:48
people learn more about you and berries in the four percent so of course we're all over Instagram and then I own a website called the four percent which is really a platform for fitness and nutrition information on the most basic level not overcomplicating really unpack a ball articles and you can find it at WWF four percent calm this was awesome thank you sir okay thank you so much for joining me today hey everybody thanks for tuning in today you can catch all the episodes on Anthony Kelly calm and you could follow me on Twitter and Instagram see you next
32:21
time alright let's see if I can hit it

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